Arizona Analysts Split on GOP Unity, Lake's Convention Speech and Biden's Future

Two Arizona political figures offered contrasting readings of the Republican National Convention and the turmoil facing Democrats in a conversation on KJZZ's The Show on Friday. Marcus Dell'Artino of First Strategic and former state lawmaker Reginald Bolding joined host Brodie for the weekly NewsCap segment.

Dell'Artino, a Republican, said he found former President Donald Trump's address, which ran just over 90 minutes, to be long but said the scripted portions were a pretty good speech. He said Trump's departures from the teleprompter were easy to spot, and that they stretched what might have been an hour-long speech to an hour and a half. He judged the party more unified than it was four years ago, crediting Nikki Haley's remarks in particular, and called the convention a success overall. He also noted that the speaker lineup, which included the head of the world's largest union, retired wrestler Hulk Hogan and an adult film star, showed how far the party has moved from its Ronald Reagan era.

Bolding, a Democrat, called the speech long and boring. He said it was billed as a unifying message but drifted into the divisiveness familiar from Trump. In his view, Trump "didn't make a great case for himself" and reminded voters why they voted him out in 2020. He also said Trump would have strengthened his chances by choosing a moderate running mate rather than J.D. Vance, whom he described as further right than Trump on a national abortion ban.

On Kari Lake, the Republican Senate candidate who also spoke at the convention, Bolding said he believed she won no new voters. He argued that she has repeatedly had chances to show she has moved on from her 2022 campaign persona but keeps returning to a divisive tone, and that a senator from Arizona must be able to work with everyone.

Dell'Artino said an afternoon convention slot is unlikely to reach independent or moderate general-election voters, who would not be watching. The speech instead appealed to a national audience, he said, which helps with fundraising, and he heard nothing new in her red-meat talking points. Bolding said Democrat Ruben Gallego's campaign should use every clip, and should keep arguing that the Lake of 2024 is the same one Arizonans saw in 2022.

The conversation then turned to Biden. The host noted that several recent polls show Democratic Senate candidates, including Gallego, Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, running ahead of the president in swing states. Bolding said Trump is not topping 51% in those polls and that the gap reflects Democrats who have not yet committed to Biden. He expects them to come around.

Bolding said that, with roughly 250 Democrats in Congress and only 15 or 16 publicly urging Biden to step aside, the party should assume he is running until he says otherwise. The host said pressure was building on the president, who was isolating with COVID at home in Delaware.

Dell'Artino took a different view, predicting that Biden would drop out on Sunday. He pointed to conversations the president has had with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and to an all-hands meeting with campaign staff that day. He expects an open floor fight at the Democratic National Convention, which he said would be historic. He also cautioned Democrats against assuming Gallego has the race locked up, citing an enthusiasm gap that favors Trump and a race he expects to be much closer than people think.

Both men said a different Democratic ticket could change the picture in Arizona. Bolding said Vice President Kamala Harris would be the natural choice if Biden stepped aside, since she is the only person with access to nearly $100 million in the campaign's coffers. He said a Harris–Mark Kelly ticket would change the calculus in Arizona and that Kelly, who has been on the ballot before, "can deliver for Arizona." Dell'Artino also guessed that a ticket featuring Kelly would shift Democratic prospects in the state.